The Political Mathematics of Why president Bola Ahmed Tinubu Will Be Reelected in 2027
The Political Mathematics of Why president Bola Ahmed Tinubu Will Be Reelected in 2027
Azeez Ajibola Afolabi
Nigeria has 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. As of today, Tuesday, November 11, 2025, 25 of those Governors are members of the ruling All Progressives Congress.
The Peoples Democratic Party has 8 Governors, including the following:
1.Adamawa – Ahmadu Fintiri
- Bauchi – Bala Mohammed
- Plateau – Caleb Mutfwang
- Taraba – Agbu Kefas
- Zamfara – Dauda Lawal
- Oyo – Seyi Makinde
- Rivers – Siminalayi Fubara
- Osun – Ademola Adeleke
Of the eight Governors now left in the PDP, one of them, Governor Agbu Kefas, has already hinted at joining the APC. Even if he does not join, which is unlikely, he is right now so pro-Tinubu that he might as well already be in the APC.
Another, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, is not as committed to the PDP, and may even be pro-Tinubu. And irrespective of his leanings, there is another force in the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, who is as pro-Tinubu as it gets and has what it takes to deliver the state to the President.
And then you have the Governors of Oyo and Osun, who would do their utmost to retain their states for their parties in the Gubernatorial election, but are not likely to put that same effort towards stopping President Tinubu at the Presidential polls.
Plateau State is already doing its medical preparatory to joining the club!
Next, you have one Governor each for the All Progressives Grand Alliance, Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party.
As long as he is left to control his fiefdom, which he would be, the recently reelected APGA Governor of Anambra has more than clearly signalled that he is for a Tinubu continuity in government.
Peter Obi’s boast of being in the Champions League was only this weekend burst by Governor Soludo, who showed him who is really in the Premiership. The poor fellow even lost his own polling unit!
The only Labour Party Governor, Mr Alex Otti, would never be so brazen as to signal such an intent publicly, but his body language leaves very little to be desired. By a nod and a wink, those who can read political sign language already know that the President need not be too bothered about Abia State.
That leaves Kano. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who really calls the shots in the NNPP, is sort of fence-sitting. Which in itself is not a bad thing. Kano has humongous numbers of votes. There is enough for everyone. And in the worst-case scenario, the President will get at least 25% there.
Now, if candidate Bola Tinubu was able to win the #NigerianElections2023 with just twenty Governors in support of him and a Federal Government that was strongly suspected to be against him, how would any president-minded person believe that he would lose in 2027 as an incumbent President with almost thirty Governors in support of his reelection?
Just do the maths. Whether or not there is a Trump invasion threat, the political arithmetic is overwhelmingly in President Tinubu’s favour.
